| Souris Basin Flood Outlook |
| 2/19/2010 |
| ALL RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE UNDER NORMAL WINTER CONDITIONS WITH NO RIVER OR STREAM IN THE BASIN CURRENTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL RIVER GAGES ARE RECORDING STAGES THAT ARE AT THE UPPER END OF THE NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PROBABILITIES OF FLOODING CONTAINED IN THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WERE DEVELOPED USING SNOWFALL AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT DATA CURRENT THROUGH 16 FEBRUARY 2010. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...THE RISKS FOR FLOODING ARE ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE SPRING MELT SEASON. EVEN MORE APPARENT TO THOSE WHO FOLLOW THESE PROBABILITY CHARTS...MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE RISK OF FLOODING INCREASE SINCE THE LAST ISSUANCE OF THIS DATA. RECENT UPDATES TO THE WATER EQUIVALENT DATA IN MANY BASINS FROM FIELD SAMPLING CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A CLEARER UNDERSTANDING OF WATER ON THE GROUND. THE SOURIS BASIN HAS BEEN SPARED SIGNIFICANT RAIN SO FAR THIS WINTER BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS RESULTED IN A SNOWPACK THAT IS IN MANY WAYS COMPARABLE TO THAT OF LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE IMMEDIATE MINOT AREA. THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MINOT HOLD LESS SNOW AND WATER EQUIVALENT OVERALL AND CONTINUES TO DECREASE UPSTREAM OF LAKE DARLING. PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOW...AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST WATER CONTENT...PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ARE HIGHEST FOR THE SOURIS RIVER AT FOXHOLM AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF MINOT. SOME DOWNSTREAM AREAS CURRENTLY HAVE A GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING WITH TOWNER AND BANTRY HAVING A 96 PERCENT CHANCE OF MODERATE FLOODING. THE WILLOW CREEK AND WINTERING RIVER SITES OF WILLOW CITY AND KARLSRUHE ALSO HAVE A GREATER THAN 98 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF MINOR FLOODING. ANOTHER PROBLEM...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MINOT AREA...ARE THE SMALLER UNGAGED STREAMS AND OVERLAND FLOODING. GIVEN A QUICK MELT OR ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE MELT...TOWNSHIP AND COUNTY ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BE FLOODED AND CREATE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES IN RURAL AREAS. ONE SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT WHILE THE SOURIS RIVER BASIN AS A WHOLE CURRENTLY HAS A SNOWPACK CAPABLE OF GENERATING FLOODING...THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS WHICH WILL WEIGH HEAVILY IN SPRING FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACCUMULATED BETWEEN NOW AND THE MELT ALONG WITH EXACT WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE SPRING MELT ARE UNPREDICTABLE AND WILL LARGELY CONTROL THE LOCATION AND SEVERITY OF FLOODING. IMPORTANTLY...THE PROBABILITIES FOR FLOODING IN THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK DO NOT INCLUDE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH ICE JAM RELATED FLOODING. TIMING AND SEVERITY OF ICE JAMS DEFY STATISTICAL FORECASTING METHODS ALTHOUGH ICE JAMS DO TEND TO FORM IN HISTORICALLY KNOWN LOCATIONS TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BRIDGES... MEANDERS IN CHANNEL...OR OTHER FEATURES THAT IMPEDE FLOW. |
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