By: Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lawrence
lawrence@kfyrtv.com
for up-to-the-minute severe weather information
KEVIN`S SEPTEMBER WEATHER FORECAST
9-2-2010
MY SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
August recap:
August temperatures averaged warmer than normal with the exception of Dickinson, which deviated 0% from normal. In other words, it was right at the 30-year August normal. Precipitation averaged slightly above normal except for Dickinson.
August in Bismarck: Temperatures averaged 2.1° above normal, precipitation 0.59” above normal with a monthly total of 2.74".
August in Williston: Temperatures averaged 0.5°above normal, precipitation 0.72" above normal with a monthly total of 2.20".
August in Dickinson: Temperatures averaged exactly normal at 0.0° deviation, precipitation 0.58" below normal with a monthly total of 0.93".
August in Minot: Temperatures averaged 2.1° above normal, precipitation 0.69" above normal with a monthly total of 2.64".
September Outlook:
I believe temperatures are going to average a little below normal and precipitation close to September averages or slightly above. For the official government outlook, click here for the graphical forecast.
September:
Temperatures to average slightly below normal.
Precipitation to average normal or slightly above normal.
Contrary to what I`ve heard rumored, an early September snow absolutely cannot be forecast when there is no sign of any storm or cold air to produce such over the next week (as of the time of this writing on September 2). If a September snow does occur, it`s because of coincidence, certainly not due to forecast ability within the meteorological community. Chances are, these predictions are made by those who are not using science. Take it for entertainment, not fact!
Note: My Fall and Winter forecast will be issued in mid-October. It is far too early to speculate with much certainty. However, it is trending to be another fairly cold and snowy winter. La Nina conditions might be strong, which is just one of several indicators when analyzing trends.
KEVIN`S AUGUST WEATHER FORECAST
8-4-2010
MY AUGUST FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO AUGUST NORMALS.
July recap:
July temperatures averaged warmer than normal in Bismarck, Minot and Williston. Dickinson was surprisingly cooler than average by over two degrees. Minot and Dickinson were both drier than normal while Bismarck was slightly wetter, and Williston abnormally wet. Precipitation was widely varying, just we would expect from summer thunderstorms.
July in Bismarck: Temperatures averaged 0.3° above normal, precipitation 0.43” above normal with a monthly total of 3.01".
July in Williston: Temperatures averaged 0.2°above normal, precipitation 1.63" above normal with a monthly total of 3.91".
July in Dickinson: Temperatures averaged 2.4° below normal, precipitation 0.43" below normal with a monthly total of 1.68".
July in Minot: Temperatures averaged 0.8 above normal, precipitation 1.07 below normal with a monthly total of 1.63".
August Outlook:
I agree with the official Climate Prediction Center forecasts. Click here for their graphical forecast. . I do not see biases neither above nor below regarding temperatures or precipitation. We are not expecting drought conditions, therefore thunderstorms will be commonplace. Remember, it takes one thunderstorm to make precipitation totals skew heavily from averages for the month. My forecast for August is exactly the same as it was in July. No drought conditions.
August:
Temperatures to average near normal.
Precipitation to average near normal.
KEVIN`S JULY WEATHER FORECAST
7-2-2010
MY JULY FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE CLOSE TO JULY NORMALS.
June recap:
June temperatures averaged slightly above normal in Minot and Bismarck and slightly below normal farther west in Dickinson and Williston. Dickinson was the coolest against June normals. Minot was very wet this month.
June in Bismarck: Temperatures averaged 0.6° above normal, precipitation –0.11” below normal with a monthly total of 2.48".
June in Williston: Temperatures averaged –0.5° below normal, precipitation 0.34" above normal with a monthly total of 2.70".
June in Dickinson: Temperatures averaged 2.3° below normal, precipitation 0.09" above normal with a monthly total of 3.40".
June in Minot: Temperatures averaged 0.5 above normal, precipitation 2.83” above normal with a monthly total of 5.98".
July Outlook:
I agree with the official Climate Prediction Center forecasts. I do not see biases neither above nor below regarding temperatures or precipitation. We are not expecting drought conditions, therefore thunderstorms will be commonplace. Remember, it takes one thunderstorm to make precipitation totals skew heavily from averages for the month.
July:
Temperatures to average near normal.
Precipitation to average near normal.
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