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LONGER RANGE FORECAST
By: Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lawrence

lawrence@kfyrtv.com

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Late winter to mid-spring 2012 Forecast by Kevin Lawrence, Chief Meteorologist KFYR-TV / NBC North Dakota News

January 23, 2012

Since September 2011, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has been predominately in a positive state, a contrast to the phase the past couple of years in the autumn and winter seasons. Weak to moderate La Nina conditions persists, and this will likely be the case through spring. When NOAA issued their winter forecast in October, they said the "wildcard" would be the Arctic Oscillation. How true this has become. Although other variables play into the weather pattern, the positive states of the AO and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been the primary drivers of our weather. La Nina winters are not created equal, and sometimes other factors dictate the overall weather. This winter is a prime example.

The Climate Prediction Center`s February-April forecast calls for "EC", or Equal Chances for above or below normal temperatures and precipitation for the Northern Plains. Here are the forecasts graphically:





Below average temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Northwest east into Montana. Precipitation looks to be greater than average in the same location. However, North Dakota is sandwiched in the "EC" region since strong Pacific storms will cross the Rockies, losing most of their moisture before re-intensifying over the Great Lakes as systems pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture.

For February, March, and April, I think two factors will come into play more than others: 1) The phase of the Arctic Oscillation, and 2) Soil moisture conditions heading into spring. Should our precipitation average less than normal, drought conditions could worsen. As of January 17, 2012, we are in an abnormally dry category:




Please note winter precipitation is considered light, so dry conditions aren`t always an indication of lasting drought.

Should soil conditions be drier than normal in the spring, our chances for warmer than normal temperatures will be on the rise. Also, keep in mind fire weather concerns will be elevated significantly should soil moisture remain low, which in turn can determine the local humidity values. As I often say on TV, "A brown, dry ground heats up faster than a green, wet ground."

The position of the storm track will be critical over the next three months. It only takes a couple of wet systems to offset abnormally dry soils. I do believe we will have a couple of strong winter storms late winter into spring considering a very active Pacific Northwest storm track. Odds for abnormally deep snowpack and severe local runoff appear to be waning, although keep in mind there is still plenty of snow in the mountains of Montana.

For more Climate Prediction Center outlooks can be found by clicking here.

The 90-day text discussion can be found by clicking here.


2011-2012 Winter Forecast by Kevin Lawrence, Chief Meteorologist KFYR-TV / NBC North Dakota News

October 24, 2011

My past winter forecasts have generally been based on the meteorological winter months of December, January, and February. With this outlook, I am including November, March and April. As we have experienced the past few years, severe winter weather can extend well into the spring. We all know by now we are in the midst of a cool and wet cycle across the Northern Plains, while the severe drought of a few years ago has shifted southward centered on the Southern Plains.

In October 2010, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) had their winter forecast based heavily on a La Nina pattern, which often implies more than typical amounts of cold and moisture, especially toward spring. Furthermore, we had a strong influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in a negative state, implying higher than normal odds of cold and moisture. In a nutshell, both indicators worked in concert that drove our weather last winter and spring. La Nina is often characterized by somewhat mild conditions during the autumn season, and a cool and wet winter and/or spring.

Here is a look at a typical La Nina pattern:



For winter 2011-2012, La Nina is back. Furthermore, the PDO continues to be a major player (my opinion) driving our weather, although this oscillation is rarely, if ever, mentioned by NOAA. I was glad to see the Arctic Osciallion (AO) mentioned as a "wild card" for this winter by NOAA scientists. I am a firm believer in atmospheric/oceanic oscillations and teleconnections that determine our overall weather pattern. Although a vital component, La Nina by itself is not the only indication one should analyze to determine long-term weather trends. For those who have been following my winter forecast the past several years, you know I`ve written a lot about the PDO and AO, just to name a few. There are many other indicators that can clue us on a winter/spring outlook.

Here are my forecast highlights for the next several months:

---"Bookends" style winter. It may begin harsh in late November/early December, followed by a mid-winter break, followed by a harsh late winter and early to mid spring.

---Snowfall amounts higher than the 30-year Bismarck normal of 44 inches, and less than last winter`s 85 inches. (Snowfall seasonal forecasts are highly subject to individual winter storms. This forecast is based solely on trends.)

---Temperatures to average one to three degrees below normal for December-April. Precipitation near normal during the winter, followed by above normal for the spring. Coldest, snowiest months could be December and February.

---Spring cool and wet. Spring precipitation will need to be monitored very closely. Another deep mountain snow pack followed by numerous wet systems will elevate flooding concerns. There is a heightened level of flooding forecast for the spring of 2012 by NOAA.

Other sources are forecasting the same general trend. Like last year, there is general agreement between different organizations that our winter/spring will average colder and wetter than normal across the Northern Plains. It is my belief that we will have a "bookends" style winter, where it starts strong and ends strong, with perhaps a break in the middle. December could turn out to be a severe winter month for the northern half of the United States, especially the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes.

Keep in mind winter precipitation is only a small piece of the puzzle regarding the spring flood outlook. It`s what happens in the spring that matters most. This past spring, we had deep mountain snow pack and very high precipitation-producing storm systems. Eastern Montana had incredible amounts of moisture, and of course the heavy thunderstorms in June in southern Canada. These high-impact storm systems severely exacerbated the spring flooding. There is a higher probability than normal spring will be cool and wet.


In the image below: NOAA winter forecast for temperatures (Dec-Jan-Feb)




In the image below: NOAA winter forecast for precipitation (Dec-Jan-Feb)




In the image below: AccuWeather, Inc. Winter Forecast




In the image below: Farmer`s Almanac Winter Forecast




Of the images above, do you see the general trend? There is one more source I look to more than any other: Joe Bastardi, Chief Meteorologist of WeatherBELL Analytics, is my number one go-to guy for long-range forecast guidance. He is predicting a winter comparable to last year for the Northern Plains and Great Lakes region, meaning above normal amounts of moisture (especially spring) and below normal temperatures. Mr. Bastardi also believes the severe drought in Texas probably won`t end anytime soon, primarily driven by the current average phase of the PDO (which can last a decade or more.) Mr. Bastardi is forecasting our winter temperature to average 2 degrees below normal, and winter precipitation to be roughly one-third above normal (133%.) Crunching the numbers, that would imply roughly 60 inches of snow this winter. Remember, it is impossible to forecast real snow amounts over the course of a season. However, the forecast trend suggests above normal amounts of snow.

NOAA`s official winter forecast issued October 20, 2011 can be found
by clicking here

Definitions:

La Nina:

A cooling of the surface water of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, occurring somewhat less frequently than El Nino events but causing similar, generally opposite disruptions to global weather patterns. La Nina conditions occur when the Pacific trade winds blow more strongly than usual, pushing the sun-warmed surface water farther west and increasing the upwelling of cold water in the eastern regions. Together with the atmospheric effects of the related southern oscillation, the cooler water brings drought to western South America and heavy rains to eastern Australia and Indonesia.

PDO:

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is often described as a long-lived El Nino-like pattern of Pacific climate variability (Zhang et al. 1997). As seen with the better-known El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), extremes in the PDO pattern are marked by widespread variations in Pacific Basin and North American climate. In parallel with the ENSO phenomenon, the extreme phases of the PDO have been classified as being either warm or cool, as defined by ocean temperature anomalies in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean.

AO:

The Arctic Oscillation exhibits a "negative phase" with relatively high pressure over the polar region and low pressure at midlatitudes (about 45 degrees North), and a "positive phase" in which the pattern is reversed. In the positive phase, higher pressure at midlatitudes drives ocean storms farther north, and changes in the circulation pattern bring wetter weather to Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia, as well as drier conditions to the western United States and the Mediterranean. In the positive phase, frigid winter air does not extend as far into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase of the oscillation. This keeps much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains warmer than normal, but leaves Greenland and Newfoundland colder than usual. Weather patterns in the negative phase are in general "opposite" to those of the positive phase.



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