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LONGER RANGE FORECAST
By: Chief Meteorologist Kevin Lawrence

lawrence@kfyrtv.com

Kevin`s Winter Forecast
-New update posted January 23-

NWS up-to-the-minute severe weather information

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Thursday, February 2

Groundhog Day!!

Here are some temperature departures for the area from January:

Minot: +10.4

Bismarck: +9.9

Williston: +9.9

Jamestown: +9.8

Dickinson: +7.5

It was not as mild as the the January of 2006, but the mildest since. The overall trend for the first full week of February is calling for the same. Temperature departures will be much warmer than normal. No winter storms are on the horizon for at least the next 7-10 days.

Through today, Bismarck has received 5.9 inches of snow this winter. The all-time record for the least amount of an entire season is 11.7 inches from 1980-1981. Odds we will not receive another 5.8 inches between now and June 30 (the last day of the now season) to me are very low. On average, our snowiest month of the year is March with 8.5 inches.

I can`t imagine this pattern continuing indefinately. Something tells me beyond the charts that we`ll have a pattern change in late February or March. For now, enjoy this amazingly mild stretch of weather with limited snow on the ground!

Friday, January 27

Cooler, blustery weather expected for the weekend. Highs in the 20s with off and on snow showers both Saturday and Sunday. Accumulations will be generally light, on the order of 1/2" to 1".

As we quickly approach February the middle of the week, temperatures will again average above normal with several days in the 30s for highs. The first 10-15 days of February do not look to have any Arctic air involved, so seasonable temperatures to above normal. Furthermore, I don`t see any major winter storms showing up on the long-range models. Last winter, we almost always had a storm on the horizon. This winter, hardly any. We will have a few chances for snow in the next couple of weeks, but I see nothing too significant. Deep enough snow for snowmobiling, etc. doesn`t look too promising.

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Thursday, January 18

New long-range data suggest this Arctic air will loosen its grip by the weekend and beyond somewhat. Highs may not be much above freezing for a while to come, but next week might be free of Arctic air. However, looking into early February, it will probably return. At least one or two more significant Arctic outbreaks can be expected.

Thursday, January 12

ARCTIC AIR INVADES NEXT WEEK

We`ve had a foretaste of Arctic chill the past couple days with below zero temperatures, some snow, and bitterly cold wind chills. That`s returning after a mild weekend.

We will be close to the Arctic boundary the entire week. An active jet stream and several disturbances will create the opportunity for several chances for snow. The situation will have to be monitored closely, as the potential exists for several snow storms resulting in a major weather pattern change.

The last week of January will likely turn mild again with above normal temperatures (back into the 30s and 40s) as the Arctic air retreats toward Alaska and milder Pacific air rules the northern Plains. That doesn`t mean the end of it -- February could be an active month with plenty more winter weather on the way.

Friday, January 6

Back to a North Dakota January Reality...

Just when you thought this "might" go on forever, changes are on the way. There is a tremendous amount of Arctic air that has been sitting still over Alaska and basically a large portion of the far northern latitudes. There has not been a mechanism to deliver the colder air into the lower 48 states, but that could be about to change.

Sometime around January 15th, or next weekend, we may begin tapping into some Arctic air and stormier weather. Chances for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation are being forecast by the Climate Prediction Center. Given the pattern change foreseen, this will no doubt put an end to our exceptionally mild weather as of late. 2007 was the last time we had a mild beginning to January, but it did flip to colder the second half. January 2006 stayed mild throughout the entire month with temperatures about 16 degrees above normal (and it never dropped below zero that month.) This year will be more like 2007, meaning a flip to colder is imminent. Keep in mind that once we get snow on the ground, temperatures will be much colder considering that element alone. Cold air masses sustain much longer with natural refrigeration as we all know.

Monday, December 27

Weather pattern change in the works! Exceptionally cold air is building over Alaska and northern Canada. Although the brunt of the cold will stay away for the time being, an active storm track will bring numerous chances for precipitation and windy weather. With the Arctic air a little closer to the north than it has been, we`ll be tapping into much colder air over the next few weeks. After all, it might start to actually feel a little more like winter!

Monday, December 19

Generally smooth-sailing through the Christmas Holiday Weekend. No major winter storms.

This Christmas will be more like 2005 or 2006, where we had an inch or less of snow on the ground. Certainly not like the past three years with deep snow pack.

One of the main reasons for a lack of cold is the strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Even though it has been trending a little less intense, it continues positive. Another teleconnection is the North Atlantic Oscillation. It`s positive as well. Not a good pattern for us to receive a lot of Arctic cold. Instead, we have a pronounced split flow in the jet stream, leading to the main storm track staying to our north and south. These types of patterns do not produce Arctic air to move into the continental United States.

The pattern we have now may continue through at least the first half of January. Will the Arctic Oscillation turn negative in late January? It`s simply too early to say for sure. If it does, our weather could take a drastic turn to very cold.

Have a great week and Christmas weekend!

Tuesday, December 13

Despite a lack of snow so far this year, it sure looks and feels like the Christmas season. A lack of any major storm track across the northern Plains has resulted in low-level moisture being "trapped" and can`t get scoured out until we have movement in the atmosphere again. The jet stream, or river of air several thousand feet off the ground, is in "split" mode, meaning the northern branch is to our north, and the southern branch keeping the southern tier of the nation stormy. With the sun`s angle so low, it`s difficult to change these kind of conditions regarding the clouds without some synoptic influence. A weak northern stream disturbance (Alberta Clipper) will move through later Wednesday into Thursday, which should mix up the air enough to scour out the low clouds and fog. By Friday, another weak system should provide for light snow. Some accumulation is possible, perhaps an inch or so. No Arctic air in sight, however. Highs in the lower 30s expected this weekend. Temperatures look to lean on the warmer than average side perhaps for the rest of the year. That doesn`t mean it won`t be chilly, of course.



Thursday, December 8

Looking for a winter storm? Nothing`s on the table through next week. There might be a change in the weather pattern as the highly-amplified jet stream buckles in the eastern Pacific allowing storms to move in off the West Coast. Until then, temperatures will moderate by the weekend into the 30s. Highs mainly in 20s next week. Early indications point to snowy weather the week before Christmas. This far out, that is pure speculation, however.

Monday, December 5

It`s an interesting La Nina pattern, to say the least. There are some things going on with the Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs), a negatively-phased Pacific Decadal Oscillation (-PDO), the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and a significantly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO)!!

What does all this mean?!

This looks more like a weak El Nino or weak La Nina. This season`s La Nina does not have the same characteristics of what we experienced last year up to this point. Can it change? Will it start to snow more? ...Only if the upper-level pattern changes. Even though we are getting some modified Arctic air, the severely cold air will stay to our north for now. Despite cold shots in the coming 7 to 10 days, the air masses will be Continental Polar and modified Arctic air. I don`t see any severely cold outbreaks on the way for the next week or two, but there will be cold shots. Let`s keep an eye on the West Coast, because when storms start to roll in, our pattern may change to a stormy one. For now, Alaska keeps stealing the show.

I think the second half of winter will be more active than the first, but there is a caveat. The current jet stream pattern will not stay in this configuration all winter-long, but the question is... will it keep snapping back to this? If so, this will be a winter of lighter precipitation heading into spring that what we`ve seen the past three years. Interesting to note, Bismarck already had over 20 inches of snow through December 5th last year. This year... 2.6 inches.

If you love winter weather, don`t despair! We`ll have snow storms and cold snaps -- perhaps not as frequent as we`ve been used to the past few years. Considering all that`s happened, I think most would enjoy an ordinary North Dakota winter!

Tuesday, November 29

Still looks like the highest snow totals will be in eastern MT. I expect 3-6" there. NW and N. Central ND including Williston and Minot should average 2-4". Along I-94, including Dickinson and Bismarck may average 1-3".

On a different note...

Sometime around December 10-15 could bring bitterly cold temps. Our first major Arctic outbreak could be on the way at that time. Of course, I`ll have plenty of updates!

Monday, November 28


A much more active weather pattern appears to be taking shape as we begin our first month of "meteorological winter". As a strong ridge in the jet stream develops over the northern Pacific, this will send much colder weather into the lower 48. In addition, several disturbances will move through increasing our chances for snow. One such storm may bring accumulating snow this Wednesday night into Thursday. Although not expecting a major winter storm at the moment, several inches are possible somewhere in western or central ND.

Monday, November 21

Here is a snapshot of Tuesday`s warm-up!



The trend continues through Thanksgiving, where highs Thursday will be in the 40s and possibly low 50s in snow-less areas. If you`re traveling throughout the Northern Plains this Holiday, the weather will cooperate nicely with little in the way of weather problems.

Looking ahead, it appears the rest of November into early December will average milder than normal. The weather pattern is going through a significant change over the next week or two, so this is likely not going to continue indefinitely! For now, take a look at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) November 29 - December 5 forecast for temperatures:



I believe the pattern will reverse sharply after this, whereby sometime between early December and Christmas we`ll get our share of wintry weather. In the meantime, enjoy this fantastic week!


Friday, November 18

9:45 PM

Here is the latest forecast... still keeping the heaviest snow in South Dakota. Snow is likely tomorrow, but 2-4 inches are likely south of I-94. Bismarck/Mandan will probably had an inch or so.



Thursday, November 17

Snow is likely Saturday, but the highest totals are still slated for South Dakota. I think 2-4 inches could easily fall in those counties that border South Dakota. Dickinson and Bismarck could pick up 1-2 inches, and only light amounts farther north. Please remember, this is only a forecast, and it all depends on the timing of the Arctic high and the developing storm.

Monday, November 14

November 3rd on Facebook, I wrote...

"...Indications point to a very cold mid-November at least. It appears several chances for snow could be coming in the next 10-20 days with well below normal temperatures. Some models point to sub-zero temps."

It appears that indication (computer models) will come true. The coldest air of the season will arrive this week with highs in the 30s, slipping into the 20s by the weekend. We also have an active pattern developing which will bring several chances for snow. Odds of a Thanksgiving with no snow on the ground is not looking realistic. It`s still too early to speculate a Thanksgiving day forecast, but in the meantime, look for much colder weather with several days of sub-freezing highs and a potentially white weekend on the way.

Monday, November 7

NE Montana and far NW ND received roughly 2-4 inches of snow. That storm has moved into Canada, and it appears we`re in for an uneventful weather pattern until at least the weekend. Even then, a major storm doesn`t seem likely. We are transitioning into a very cool and wet pattern across the western half of the United States over the next two weeks, which could easily translate into an active pattern here--with plenty of cold an snow chances. For now, no worries the rest of the week.

Saturday, November 5

Here are a couple of links that will provide you the very latest information. One is from the National Weather Service, and the other is our exclusive in-house computer model snow forecast that will continually update with the very latest model run.

1. Click here for NWS up-to-the-minute severe weather information

2. Our RPM Snow Model Forecast

Friday, November 4

Snow is on the way for the entire First Warn viewing region, including Bismarck/Mandan, but higher amounts, in the 2-4" range should stay toward the west. At this time, I think amounts closer to one inch are possible in the Capital City. This is going to be a fast-mover, with snow developing late afternoon first in western SD and eastern MT. By early to mid-evening, snow will start to fall in far western ND. I think snow holds off in central ND until closer to Midnight. This Winter Storm Watch will be replaced with either a Winter Weather Advisory, or Winter Storm Warning, but the National Weather Service will determine that later. With the first storm of the season, you can`t be over-prepared. Stay tuned for updates.

Thursday, November 3

4:40 update:

Latest trends keep heaviest snow well north of Bismarck into southern Canada. However, a Winter Storm Watch has been posted for northwest North Dakota Saturday. Here is that information:

Winter Storm Watch

-----

I am not a fan of predicting snow amounts this far out because it`s often assumed the forecast won`t change. Having said that, if the storm continues on the current forecast track, several inches of snow are possible (4"-8") over the northwest quarter of North Dakota. The bulls eye right now is somewhere around Williston and Stanley, east toward Minot and Devils Lake. Basically, Highway 2. Accumulating snow is still likely along I-94, but perhaps on the order of 2"-4".

Saturday looks mainly dry during daylight hours. Toward evening, into the night through Sunday is when wind/snow could make travel hazardous. Stay tuned.

Wednesday, November 2

Here is the latest on the potential weekend winter weather event:
This is obviously still a few days away, but latest computer model consensus keeps most of North Dakota snow-free on Saturday. It appears the snow threat will be pushed back in time to late Saturday night into Sunday mid-day. This storm should be a fast-mover, so high snow accumulations don`t appear likely. Even so, snow and wind will be probable, with the best-guess being the northern half North Dakota with the highest impact. If today`s model runs were to verify as-is, we`d have about one inch of snow near the South Dakota border and maybe 2-4 inches along the Canadian border. Stay tuned for more updates the rest of the week. I`ll definitely have them!

Tuesday, November 1

The computer forecast models are not backing off this potential winter storm for the weekend. I am completely confident a winter storm will form, but I am nowhere near confident in guessing what local impacts it will have, other than to say we will definitely have to watch this closely. The latest trend suggests this could be a Saturday night and Sunday system.

This storm does have the ability to severely affect travel in North Dakota, so make sure to keep checking back here and on facebook for updates all week long.

Dickinson, ND: 22° and Clear Winds: 5 mph, W Pressure: 30.40 Humidity: 81%

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